Soybean, pork export sales lower than average

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Soybean, pork export sales lower than average

Chinese demand for soybeans continues to drive U.S. sales. The USDA says soybean exports during the week ending October 15th topped 2 million tons with China buying more than half of the total, but that’s 18% lower than the four-week average, which might be a sign that demand is slowing down. A significant amount of the recent sales from China are expected to be delivered in early 2021, usually when Brazil has control of the export market, and while planting in South America has been delayed by dry weather, a wetter pattern is in the forecast for many key growing areas. China was also the biggest buyer of U.S. soybean oil and sorghum, the second biggest purchaser of corn, cotton, and beef, and took third place for pork. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out November 10th.

Physical shipments of soybeans were above what’s needed weekly to meet USDA projections for the current marketing year. The 2020/21 marketing year started June 1st for wheat, August 1st for cotton and rice, September 1st for corn, sorghum, and soybeans, and October 1st for soybean products.

Wheat came out at 367,500 tons (13.5 million bushels), down 31% from the week ending October 8th and 23% lower than the four-week average. Mexico purchased 192,800 tons and Nigeria bought 60,600 tons, but unknown destinations canceled on 95,500 tons. At this stage of the 2020/21 marketing year, wheat sales are 566.5 million bushels, compared to 517.5 million in 2019/20.

Corn was reported at 1,831,600 tons (72.1 million bushels), up sharply from the previous week and 21% higher than the four-week average. Japan picked up 490,100 tons and China purchased 433,500 tons. About a month and a half into the marketing year, corn sales are 1.116 billion bushels, compared to 427.4 million this time last year.

Sorghum sales were 280,800 tons (11.1 million bushels). China bought 195,800 tons and unknown destinations picked up 85,000 tons. Sorghum exports are 126.6 million bushels, compared to 10.5 million a year ago.

Rice sales were 60,900 tons, an improvement from the week before, but a decline of 45% from the four-week average. Colombia purchased 21,900 tons and Japan bought 13,000 tons. Rice exports are 1,080,500 tons, compared to 1,470,600 last year.

Soybeans were pegged at 2,225,500 tons (81.8 million bushels), 14% under the prior week and 18% below the four-week average. China picked up 1,222,000 tons and Egypt purchased 194,400 tons. So far, this marketing year, soybean sales are 1.666 billion bushels, compared to 671 million a year ago.

Soybean meal came out at 321,900 tons. Mexico bought 127,800 tons and the Dominican Republic picked up 36,700 tons. Roughly two weeks into the marketing year, soybean meal sales are 3,941,100 tons, compared to 3,726,500 last year.

Soybean oil was reported at 37,000 tons. China purchased 11,000 tons and the Dominican Republic bought 8,600 tons. Cumulative soybean oil sales are 215,200 tons, compared to 203,200 a year ago. A net reduction of 200 tons for 2021/22 delivery followed a cancellation by Canada.

Upland cotton was pegged at 227,800 tons, quite a bit more than the previous week and 51% larger than the four-week average. Pakistan picked up 93,300 bales and China purchased 47,500 bales. 2020/21 upland cotton exports are 8,461,000 bales, compared to 9,276,100 in 2019/20. Sales of 21,300 bales for 2021/22 delivery were to China (17,200 bales) and Mexico (4,100 bales).

Net beef sales totaled 21,700 tons, an increase of 62% from the week before and 13% from the four-week average. The reported buyers were South Korea (5,400 tons), China (3,700 tons), Japan (3,600 tons), Mexico (2,800 tons), and Hong Kong (2,600 tons), with a cancellation by Chile (100 tons). Shipments of 17,800 tons were up 10% on the week and 6% from the four-week average, mainly to Japan (4,500 tons), South Korea (4,200 tons), China (2,000 tons), Mexico (1,600 tons), and Hong Kong (1,500 tons). Net sales of 2,600 tons for 2021 delivery were to Japan (1,400 tons) and South Korea (1,300 tons) with a cancellation by Hong Kong (200 tons).

Net pork sales totaled 26,800 tons, steady with the previous week and down 35% from the four-week average. The listed purchasers were Mexico (13,800 tons), Japan (4,900 tons), China (1,800 tons), South Korea (1,500 tons), and Colombia (1,000 tons), with a cancellation by Vietnam (100 tons). Shipments of 36,600 tons were 2% higher than the prior week and 4% more than the four-week average, primarily to China (12,500 tons), Mexico (11,100 tons), Japan (4,300 tons), Canada (2,500 tons), and South Korea (1,500 tons). Sales of 800 tons for 2021 delivery were to New Zealand (400 tons), Australia (300 tons), and Mexico (100 tons).